Personally, I'm convinced Obama is going to win on Tuesday. The pundits have been calling the elections for ages, and there have been numerous polls showing commanding wins in store for the Democrats--both in the Presidential race as well as those for the House and Senate. With the percentage of those voting for Obama creeping upwards (a significant number have voted early), a Democratic victory across the board appears to be well within reach.
There is trouble brewing, however. We all remember George W. Bush litigating himself into the White House in 2000. He was a minority President who met with stern resistance from everywhere outside the GOP. Bill Clinton, also a minority President, had to tackle Newt Gingrich and his Republicans before the Kenneth Starr investigations (championed by the family values teams on the American right). This shows us that political capital remains important, and that grabbing the short straw in an election might not mean defeat, but trouble down the road.
McCain still has a path to victory. Pennsylvania is crucial, and staying strong in Florida and Arizona will certainly help push his team to Pennsylvania Ave. Still, all indications are that however McCain gets into the White House, he will do it by the skin of his teeth. He can become a President with no political capital, immense lack of support from the public, and with a Democratic House and Senate.
Considering McCain's age, it's do or die (literally). He spent the last decade trying to get his wrinkly ass into the Oval Office, and this time around he sold his whole soul to the Republicans. Even his choice of running mate was pandering to the American right, and drove away Republicans, independents, and the right-leaning Democrats from his ticket. There was no way he could have won over the American left, but the reasonable expectations that he could gain ground with independent voters disappeared with the support of figures like Gen. Colin Powell, Scott McClellan, and other high-profile GOP guys.
Still, much of the media presents all of this with a slant. During the debate, FOX News watchers responded overwhelmingly that Palin and McCain won their respective debates, whereas CNN and MSNBC watchers overwhelmingly found the opposite. The divisiveness that defectors like Gen. Powell cited as reasons for their choices seems to be very much a factor in how the electorate thinks of the race, and it will certainly have an impact on how the electorate thinks of the winner.
Karl Rove has long supported a strategy of divisiveness and personal attacks. This fires up partisanship on both sides of the aisle. However, it's increasingly being seen that the so-called undecided voters are driven away by this rhetoric, preferring the inclusiveness of the Obama campaign, and this makes a lot of sense. Barack Obama is the personification of America. He is Kansas, Hawaii, Black, White, educated, poor, and someone who brought himself up from disadvantage to the cusp of the Presidency. Whatever change McCain tries to peddle, he remains who he is: a son of the military elite, old, and White.
Thanks to the difficulties of virtually 'going it alone' in Iraq, the complexities of maintaining an international coalition in Afghanistan, awareness that there are people in the world that hate America enough to attack it regardless of the consequences, many independents seem to see the ire-inspiring choice of running mate by McCain as a foreshadowing of rash decisions on all fronts.
So there's currently a minority of support for the McCain ticket (46.6% according to
FiveThirtyEight.com), although with the expected tightening of the race closer to election day, paths to victory are still open. McCain may have consolidated his base, but he did so by giving up political capital. Obama has not consolidated anything around a message clearer than "hope" or "change," but thanks to the partisanship of Karl Rove's campaign tactics, he benefits significantly in political capital.
If Rove manages to win the right states for McCain, then we have a president with little clout. If Obama merely continues on his current path, we'll have a majority President who is truly able to incite change, as he will have the political capital giving him room to maneuver. This being said, if McCain were to win the White House, he would make a worse President than Obama based solely on the fact that he won't have the political capital to back anything up.
Never give up, though. It's important that McCain keep campaigning until the very end, and even more so that Obama supporters vote even if they think he'll win anyway. The race is now about clout. Let's hope we don't elect ourselves a President who will be immediately unpopular. Let's hope we actually put "that one" in charge, because divisive politics and rash decisions do not a good policy make.
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